Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $3,220$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(703 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,359.7}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 39.5)}}\) (asimptote \(2,359.7\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $113$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(31 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{106.8}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 36.9)}}\) (asimptote \(106.8\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $897$ on 2020-07-06
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $73,061$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(4.62 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{101,783.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 104.8)}}\) (asimptote \(101,783.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,433$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(956 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,260.1}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 51.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,260.1\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $67,628$ on 2020-07-06
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,936$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(3.27 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(74.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,468.2}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 32.8)}}\) (asimptote \(8,468.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $251$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(90.5 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{239.4}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 30.0)}}\) (asimptote \(239.4\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $547$ on 2020-07-06
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,257$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(1.7 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,140.1}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 49.3)}}\) (asimptote \(7,140.1\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $329$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(96 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{324.2}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 35.8)}}\) (asimptote \(324.2\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $228$ on 2020-07-06
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $13,079$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(3.49 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,483.4}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 43.2)}}\) (asimptote \(12,483.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $607$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(200 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{590.2}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 33.6)}}\) (asimptote \(590.2\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $337$ on 2020-07-06
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,866$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(799 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(85.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,811.9}{1 + 10^{-0.076 (t - 29.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,811.9\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(5.16 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(91.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.1}{1 + 10^{-0.073 (t - 22.4)}}\) (asimptote \(10.1\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $16$ on 2020-07-06
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $62,058$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(1.67 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59,383.6}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 42.5)}}\) (asimptote \(59,383.6\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,774$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(2.83 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,525.7}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 38.3)}}\) (asimptote \(9,525.7\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $35,193$ on 2020-07-06
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $287,290$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(5.61 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{278,670.3}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 53.8)}}\) (asimptote \(278,670.3\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $44,321$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(9.52 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,243.8}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 46.4)}}\) (asimptote \(42,243.8\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $241,594$ on 2020-07-06
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $241,819$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(7.14 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{234,522.7}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 43.4)}}\) (asimptote \(234,522.7\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,869$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(9.39 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,913.7}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.8)}}\) (asimptote \(33,913.7\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $14,709$ on 2020-07-06
